I have never been as glad to see a year come to a close as 2008. While the year certainly had many highlights before September (Keith and Lisa's graduation and wedding, some wonderful trips, etc), the last four months were grueling for the economy and the stock and bond markets. As you get older, many of the years of your life seem to run together. While we fondly remember the years in which we celebrate weddings or births, rarely are there outside events which so define a year (good or bad). 2008 was one of those rare years.
A woman nearly became the presidential nominee, another woman was nominated by her party to be Vice President. And finally, an African American man (who happens to live six blocks from Bryan and Jessie and uses the gym in their apartment building) became our President. During this political excitement, Wall Street had a complete meltdown. Two of my former employers (Prudential/Wachovia Securities and National City Bank) had their stocks plunge over 90%and were forced into mergers. Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and Merrill Lynch lost over $30 billion and had to be merged with Bank of America. Main street felt violated by Wall Street and with good reason. The stock market had its worst plunge since 1937 and corporate and tax free bonds fell 10 - 30%. With unemployment soaring, I have never seen friends and clients so scared and depressed about the future.
An ancient curse says "may you live in interesting times". I now know what they mean. Over the last 100 years of American history, only a few years are of such significance that they mark turning points in our nation and are remembered for generations to come. 1914 (start of WWI), 1929 (stock market crash and start of depression), 1941 (Pearl Harbor and start of WWII), 1974 (stock market cash, Vietnam War, and Nixon resignation) and 2001 (9/11 attack). Let's add 2008 to this short list.
In my job, I am often asked to predict the path of our economy and the stock and bond markets. I tell my clients that my crystal ball is broke and as John Kenneth Galbraith has stated, "The purpose of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable". I don't know what 2009 will bring, but I have reminded my clients (and anyone else that will listen) that America has gone through many difficult periods (and with more challenges than we face today) and in each case we have bounced back to new levels of prosperity. It is not fun at the time and we all need to pitch in to help those less fortunate. Everyday I am thankful for the many blessings in my life and I try to look forward to the future in a positive light.
Good bye 2008 - Here's to 2009!
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2 comments:
In econ class we learned about the business cycle and Kenyesian economics, fiscal policy, and monetary policy. I think the course was more interesting to me because of the connections I could draw between my readings and proposed policies and the current crisis!
Great article Cliff and just want to add that I like the verse of the song that says, "I know not what the future holds but I know WHO holds the future". Let us pray every day for the leaders of our nation that they may seek understanding from the ONE whosees all and knows all. Mom
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